Nickel & Stainless Steel Market Insights – Late April 2026

Period: Late April 2026

Scope: Nickel Alloys, Stainless Steel, and Related Raw Materials

Sources: Indonesian ESDM, LME, Mysteel, SMM, INSG, and public market data

1. Supply-Demand & Production Changes

Domestic stainless steel crude steel output: Remains high and stable. According to Mysteel, China’s scheduled stainless crude steel production for April 2026 is 3.7713 million tons, down 0.65% month-on-month but up 7.67% year-on-year. Among this, 300-series output reached 1.9585 million tons (+1.11% MoM), driven by demand for high-end products (e.g., 316L) and high-end exports, further expanding its supply share and supporting raw material demand.

Social inventory continued destocking in late April: As of April 23, stainless steel social inventory across 89 sample Chinese enterprises stood at 1.1167 million tons, representing the seventh consecutive week of decline. 300-series inventory continued to digest, while 200-series saw significant destocking — performance better than typical off-season levels.

Nickel raw material supply (Indonesia/Philippines/domestic): Indonesia’s RKAB quotas have been reduced to approximately 260–270 million tons. The WBN mine’s quota will be exhausted in May, leading to production suspension. Combined with the sulfur supply crisis affecting HPAL operations, nickel ore supply remains tight. In the Philippines, post-rainy season exports have slightly increased, easing some pressure, but overall upstream supply remains constrained.

2. Key Enterprises & Market Moves

Mill price adjustments & support: Major mills like Tsingshan adopted “order freezes” and “limited acceptance” strategies in late April. 304 prices were raised by RMB 100/ton on April 27, while 316L saw a cumulative increase of RMB 500/ton in the latter half of the month. May ferrochrome long-term contract prices rose by RMB 100 to RMB 8,495/50MT basis.

• Taigang: On April 28, raised 321 cold/hot rolled coil by RMB 100-200/ton and plate by RMB 200/ton, continuing to support prices.
• Dongte Special Steel: 304/No.1 settlement price at RMB 14,800/ton; 316L/No.1 settlement at RMB 28,000/ton.

Mill developments:

• Huafei Project: Subsidiary Huafei Nickel Cobalt in Indonesia announced temporary maintenance on some production lines from May 1, 2026, due to sharp sulfur price hikes and high load operations, expected to affect about 50% of output.
• French Eramet’s WBN mine: Only 12 million wet tons of quota approved in early 2026, down 71% YoY. The mine will suspend production for maintenance after mid-May when quotas are exhausted.

Downstream demand changes: Stainless steel demand is showing structural divergence. Traditional sectors rely on just-in-time procurement with price-sensitive hesitation at high levels. High-end sectors, driven by policy support, show stronger growth elasticity.

Exports: China’s stainless steel exports in Q1 fell 34.5% YoY due to export licensing, Middle East conflicts, and EU CBAM carbon taxes. A moderate recovery is expected in Q2 as adaptation ends and Southeast Asian markets recover.

Summary

Key changes in late April include Indonesia’s policy tightening — WBN mine’s May shutdown, Huafei’s output cut, plus the sulfur crisis raising HPAL costs. Supply-side tightening signals are clear. Short-term cost push lifts nickel and stainless futures, while destocking shows rigid demand support. However, downstream acceptance of high prices remains weak — the “strong cost” vs. “weak demand” dynamic continues.

• Indonesia: Nickel product export tax is still under discussion and was not implemented in April. Market rumors circulated in late April, supporting LME nickel prices.
• Indonesia: Nickel ore quota tightening and new HPM pricing came into effect on April 15, raising the coefficient for 1.6% grade ore from 17% to 30%, and for the first time including associated elements (cobalt, iron, chromium) in pricing. Combined with RKAB quota cuts to 260-270 million tons, this creates both supply tightening and cost inflation.
• Indonesia: “Free cobalt” ends — nickel ore with cobalt ≥0.05% is now taxed at 2%. Byproduct cobalt from HPAL projects is no longer free, increasing tax costs by US$2.3/ton for HPAL ore and US$3.3/ton for pyrometallurgical ore.
• EU: CBAM carbon tariff and steel safeguard measures operate in parallel. CBAM is now mandatory. EU stainless imports fell 15% YoY in Q1. From July, EU safeguard measures will tighten: quotas cut by ~47%, out-of-quota tariff raised from 25% to 50%, plus carbon costs, systematically suppressing Asian stainless exports.

Nickel Price Movements

LME nickel: Broke US$19,500/ton on the night of April 28, a new high since June 2024. Closed at US$19,476/ton on April 29, up ~10% month-to-date.

Shanghai nickel (main contract): Closed at RMB 150,550/ton on April 29, intraday high of RMB 152,230/ton.

INSG forecast: Global nickel market will see a 32,000-ton supply deficit in 2026 — the first deficit since 2021, marking a shift from surplus to shortage.

Drivers: Indonesia policy package, Middle East conflicts disrupting shipping, sulfur price breaking US$1,100–1,200/ton, Huafei output cut, WBN mine suspension in May.

Stainless Steel Key Prices

As of April 28, Wuxi market 304/2B Hongwang cold-rolled quoted at RMB 15,300/ton, up RMB 700-800/ton from mid-April, with Foshan following. 304 hot-rolled Tsingshan quote at RMB 14,700/ton. 316L cold-rolled settled at high levels.

304 sections: RMB 15,200-15,700/ton; 316L sections: RMB 28,000-28,500/ton. Stainless steel futures main contract touched RMB 15,230/ton on April 23 night, trading at RMB 15,440/ton on April 30 morning.

Raw material side: High-grade nickel pig iron (NPI) mainly quoted at RMB 1,140–1,160/nickel (ex-wharf tax), transaction prices at RMB 1,140–1,150/nickel (arrival plant tax included).

Risk / Opportunity Highlights: Focus on WBN mine suspension impact, further deterioration of sulfur supply, and whether Indonesia’s export tax is implemented in May. If costs continue rising without corresponding end-user demand, prices may experience high volatility.

Trend 1: Fundamental restructuring of the global nickel market. INSG forecasts a 32,000-ton deficit in 2026 — the first surplus-to-deficit shift since 2021. Resource-holding countries gain pricing power, supply chains face disruptions, and tightening has moved from expectation to reality.

Trend 2: Accelerated structural divergence in stainless demand. The April 23 International Chromium-Nickel-Stainless & New Energy Industry Conference highlighted that stainless demand is diverging: traditional sectors maintain just-in-time purchases, while high-end sectors (high-end equipment, energy storage, etc.) show stronger elasticity. Nickel demand from new energy, specialty stainless upgrading, and import substitution continues to advance.

Medium-term judgment (1–3 months): Over the next quarter, cost support and weak downstream demand will create a tug-of-war, resulting in high volatility and elevated price ranges. Indonesian policies, mine suspensions, and the sulfur crisis are unlikely to ease quickly, keeping costs high. However, high domestic mill output and weak buying interest at elevated prices may lead to pullbacks after rallies. Key monitors: impact of WBN suspension, sulfur supply, and post-holiday restocking after May Day.

Based on current insights — tight nickel raw material supply, rising costs, and escalating trade barriers:

• For procurement enterprises: Maintain just-in-time buying, avoid chasing high inventory. For high-nickel grades such as 316L, 2205 (high Mo/Ni content), consider locking in partial volumes for May-June to hedge against further tightening.
• For traders: Current prices already reflect significant expectations. Maintain inventory at 60%-70% of normal turnover and preserve cash flow. If prices rise >3% in the short term, consider moderate profit-taking. Avoid panic-selling on dips, as cost support remains strong.
• For export-oriented clients: EU safeguard quotas will shrink by ~47% from July, with out-of-quota tariffs doubling to 50%. Accelerate shipments to Europe in May-June. Actively explore Southeast Asian and Middle Eastern markets to reduce single-market dependence.

Conclusion: Cost support versus weak demand will keep prices range-bound with high volatility. Manage inventory prudently, purchase based on actual needs, and closely monitor Indonesian policies and sulfur price movements.

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