Date: Late May 2026
Scope: Nickel Alloys / Stainless Steel / Related Raw Materials
Sources: Indonesia ESDM, LME, Mysteel, SMM, INSG, and public market data
Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Trends
1. Nickel Price Trends
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LME Nickel: Closed at $19,101/ton on May 29, rebounding from previous levels.
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SHFE Nickel: Closed at CNY 144,420/ton on May 29, up 1.19% in a single day.
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Range: Late May fluctuations between $18,500–19,800/ton.
Drivers:
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Supply Contraction: Indonesia 2026 RKAB quotas tightened; some high-nickel pig iron lines reduced output due to raw material shortages.
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Domestic Factors: Some MHP projects in China reduced production due to sulfur supply constraints.
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Weak Demand: Stainless steel market prices declining, low downstream purchasing activity, slow uptake in the new energy sector; domestic nickel inventory accumulation limits price growth.
2. Stainless Steel Market
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Inventory: Total domestic 300-series stainless steel inventory at 687,000 tons; de-stocking trend continues but at a slower pace.
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Price Gap: 316L vs 304 stainless steel price gap remains high (~$1,850/ton) due to tight molybdenum concentrate supply.
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Export Outlook: China’s domestic stainless steel and plate exports have a short-term price advantage under stable domestic plate prices and high nickel prices, but downstream acceptance of high-priced products is gradually weakening. Profits of the domestic steel industry dropped sharply in Jan–Apr 2026, pressuring mills to increase exports and accelerate cash flow.
Policy and Regulatory Changes
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Policy
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Key Points
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Export Impact
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EU Trade Protection (Effective July 1)
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Duty-free quota reduced from ~34.5M tons to 18.3M tons; excess tariff doubled from 25% to 50%; added “casting origin” audit rules
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Significantly raises export threshold to EU
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Indonesia Commodity Export Controls
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DSI state-owned enterprise to manage full export process; 106 IUP mining permits paused; WBN mines under maintenance
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Tightens supply expectations and increases industry-wide costs
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Brazil Anti-Dumping Preliminary Ruling
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China, Indonesia, India found dumping; China’s margin 50.1%; final ruling Nov 25, 2026
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Short-term neutral; final ruling will raise export barriers
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CBAM Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (EU)
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Carbon price €75.36/ton; cold-rolled stainless steel benchmark 2.152 t CO₂/t
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Increases EU export cost; low-carbon production gains competitive advantage
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Key Focus:
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Indonesia policy delays provide short-term relief, but core supply issues remain.
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EU carbon price rising, combining with CBAM and quota tightening, forms dual pressure on exports.
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US 232 steel tariffs restrict ordinary steel exports; only high-value nickel alloys can enter under limited exemptions.
Global Demand and Market Dynamics
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Seasonality: Appliance, real estate, and new energy sectors in off-season; slow recovery in stainless steel and nickel alloy demand.
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PV/Energy Storage: Policy-driven installation growth; 20% YoY increase in mounting and storage tank demand.
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Hydrogen Storage: High-pressure tanks and pipelines drive demand for duplex and super-austenitic stainless steels.
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Shipbuilding & Aerospace: Stable demand for 300-series stainless steel and high-end nickel alloys; global market continues to grow.
Nickel Alloy Export Markets:
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North America: Inconel standard products priced $28–38/lb domestically, $5–10/lb lower than local market.
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Middle East: CFR $555–575/ton; Iran export suspension supports regional prices; stable demand from infrastructure projects.
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Southeast Asia: Philippines new capacity; expanding local supply may compress China’s export market in the long term.
Key Risks and Mid-Term Outlook
Short-Term Risks:
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EU July 1 quota policy; June shipments critical for H2 revenue and market share.
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Shipping costs rising due to US–Iran tensions, squeezing export margins.
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Indonesia sulfur supply uncertainty could impact MHP production costs and nickel alloy pricing.
1–3 Month Outlook:
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Nickel prices likely to remain high and volatile, supported by tight Indonesian mining quotas and constrained supply.
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Slow global demand recovery limits price growth.
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EU quota tightening shifts China’s export focus to Middle East, Southeast Asia, and South America.
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Southeast Asia new capacity reduces China’s market share, pushing the industry toward high-value products like nickel alloys and duplex steel.
Global Export Market Outlook for Nickel Alloys and Stainless Steel
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Market
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Short-Term Opportunity
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Main Risk
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Current Export Conditions
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EU
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Pre-July 1 shipment window
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Quota tightening, CBAM cost, excess tariff
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Neutral-Tight
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Middle East
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Stable demand from infrastructure & energy
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Geopolitical risks, high shipping costs
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Relatively Loose
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Southeast Asia
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Indonesia export tax delay
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Philippines new capacity, Vietnam anti-dumping
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Neutral-Tight
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North America
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High-end nickel alloys price advantage
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232 Tariffs block ordinary steel
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Highly Restricted
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South America
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Brazil temporary anti-dumping exemption until Nov
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Final ruling uncertainty
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Relatively Loose
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Conclusion
Looking ahead, nickel prices are expected to remain volatile due to Indonesian mining quota restrictions and ongoing raw material supply challenges. Demand growth in hydrogen energy, offshore engineering, and aerospace sectors is expected to support consumption of duplex stainless steel and high-performance nickel alloys.
Export conditions remain challenging in Europe due to CBAM implementation and quota adjustments, while emerging markets in the Middle East and South America continue to present growth opportunities for stainless steel and nickel alloy products.
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