Trade Barriers and Tight Nickel Supply--July 2026

Period: Early July 2026

Applicable Industries: Nickel Alloys / Stainless Steel / Specialty Steel / Raw Materials

Information Sources: Indonesia Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM), European Commission, LME, SMM, Mysteel, China Trade Remedy Information Network

1. Supply and Production Trends

China Stainless Steel Production Update

According to Mysteel data, China’s stainless steel crude production from 43 major stainless steel mills reached 3.5154 million tons in June 2026, representing a 7.88% month-on-month decrease but still 6.8% higher year-on-year.

Production in July is estimated at 3.5999 million tons, up 2.4% month-on-month and 12.12% year-on-year.

By product category:

• 300 series stainless steel: July production is expected at 1.8618 million tons, down 5.79% month-on-month, but up 9.64% year-on-year.
• 200 series stainless steel: Production is expected to increase by 18.38% month-on-month.
• 400 series stainless steel: Production is expected to increase by 5.64% month-on-month.

Overall stainless steel supply remains relatively high, maintaining competitive pressure in the market. However, the continued reduction in 300 series production may help ease short-term supply pressure.

2. Nickel Raw Material Supply

The biggest market development in early July came from Indonesia’s RKAB nickel mining quota policy.

On July 10, 2026, Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) announced that the country would not implement a broad increase in nickel mining quotas. The national nickel ore production quota for 2026 will remain within 250–260 million tons. Only domestic smelters facing severe raw material shortages may apply for additional quotas through a strict approval process, with very limited incremental supply.

This policy indicates that Indonesia intends to maintain tighter control over nickel ore supply and prevent excessive production growth.

Tsingshan Group

Tsingshan continued its price-support strategy in July, maintaining stable market allocation and controlled supply.

Stainless Steel Producers

Although July production plans show a slight recovery, 300 series stainless steel production remains reduced.

Meanwhile, declining nickel pig iron and ferrochrome prices have weakened cost support, putting further pressure on steel mill profitability.

Market Summary

The key market changes during this period include:

• 300 series stainless steel production continues to decline.
• Indonesia’s tightened RKAB policy strengthens expectations of higher nickel raw material costs.
• Japan and the European Union have introduced additional trade restrictions, creating pressure from both rising costs and weaker export demand.

1. Japan Introduces Temporary Anti-Dumping Duties on Chinese Cold Rolled Stainless Steel

Issuing Authorities: Japan Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) & Ministry of Finance

Key Measures:

• Effective from July 9, 2026
• Temporary period:4 months (until November 8, 2026)
• Different Chinese exporters may face different duty rates, while maximum duty rate reaches 42.1%
• Covered products:
  • Cold rolled stainless steel sheets and coils
  • Nickel content above 0.6%
  • HS codes mainly under 7219.31–7219.35

Market Impact:

This represents one of the first large-scale anti-dumping measures targeting Chinese stainless steel products in the Asia-Pacific region. If the final ruling maintains the duties, long-term export costs to Japan will increase significantly.

For exporters, improving product structure and increasing the proportion of high-value-added stainless steel products will become increasingly important.

2. India Strengthens Trade Protection Measures

(1) Indian Steel Industry Calls for Reintroduction of BIS Certification

On July 1, 2026, Indian small and medium steel producers requested the government to restore mandatory BIS certification requirements for imported stainless steel products.

Background:

• After policy relaxation, India’s stainless steel imports increased significantly.
• Stainless steel imports in April rose 65% year-on-year.
• China’s stainless steel exports to India reached 46,000 tons in May, the highest level in nearly 20 months.

Current Certification Status

Market Impact:

India has become an important growth market for Chinese stainless steel exports. However, if BIS certification requirements are restored, export procedures and compliance costs will increase.

(2) India Launches Anti-Dumping Investigation on Chinese Hot Rolled Flat Steel

Issuing Authority: India Directorate General of Trade Remedies (DGTR)

Key Details:

Products involved:

• Alloy and non-alloy hot rolled steel
• Thickness ≤25 mm, Width ≤2100 mm

Related HS codes: 7208, 7211, 7225 and 7226

Stainless steel products are not included in this investigation.

Market Impact:

Although stainless steel is not directly affected, the investigation reflects India’s increasing focus on trade protection.

3. Indonesia Confirms Tight Nickel Ore Quota Policy

Authority: Indonesia Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM)

Key Points:

• 2026 nickel ore production quota maintained at 250–260 million tons, which is significantly lower than 2025’s approximately 379 million tons.
• Only limited additional approvals available for qualified domestic smelters
• Application deadline: July 31

Market Impact:

Previous expectations of a large quota increase have disappeared. The tighter quota policy supports nickel prices and indicates that nickel ore supply may remain relatively constrained in the medium term.

1. Nickel Market Update (As of July 15, 2026)

LME Nickel

• Closing price on July 15: USD 16,765/ton
• July average price so far: approximately USD 16,295/ton
• June average price: USD 17,593/ton

Nickel prices showed a pattern of: Early decline → stabilization → rebound

Supporting Factors:

• Indonesia’s tightened nickel quota policy
• Continuous LME inventory reduction
• Higher sulfur-related processing costs

Pressure Factors:

• Stronger US dollar expectations
• Domestic nickel inventories exceeding 100,000 tons
• Weak stainless steel demand during seasonal low periods

2. Stainless Steel Price Update

304 Stainless Steel Cold Rolled Coil (Wuxi Market)

Mainstream price: RMB 14,400/ton

Stainless Steel Futures

2608 stainless steel contract closed at RMB 14,555/ton on July 15.

Raw Material Cost

High-carbon ferrochrome prices declined to RMB 8,050–8,150 per 50 basis ton. Cost-side support has weakened.

Risk Outlook

Although Indonesia’s nickel quota restrictions provide support for nickel prices, several factors continue to limit upward movement:

• LME nickel inventory remains high at approximately 274,000 tons
• Domestic inventories exceed 100,000 tons
• Stainless steel demand remains weak during the traditional low season

Nickel prices are expected to remain within a relatively stable range: USD 16,500–17,000/ton in the short term.

Trend 1: Global Steel Trade Regulations Are Becoming More Strict

Trade protection measures are expanding from traditional markets such as Europe and North America toward major Asian markets.

Recent developments include:

• Japan’s temporary anti-dumping duties on Chinese stainless steel
• India’s increasing trade investigations
• Potential BIS certification restrictions

Global stainless steel exporters will need stronger market adaptation capabilities and diversified export strategies.

Trend 2: Indonesia Nickel Policy Shifts from Expected Expansion to Supply Control

Indonesia’s decision to maintain strict nickel mining quotas demonstrates its intention to avoid excessive supply growth. This may provide medium-term support for nickel prices. However, high inventories and weak demand will continue limiting price increases.

Trend 3: Global Stainless Steel Trade Flows May Be Restructured

With increasing trade barriers in Europe and Asia, stainless steel supply chains may gradually shift toward Middle East, Southeast Asia, South Asia and Latin America. However, competition in alternative markets is expected to intensify.

Medium-Term Outlook (Next 1–3 Months)

Export companies should closely monitor:

1. The impact of Japan’s temporary anti-dumping duties on stainless steel exports;
2. Whether India restores BIS certification requirements;
3. Changes in export routes after EU regulatory updates.

Companies should accelerate:

• High-value-added stainless steel product development;
• Nickel alloy and specialty material applications;
• Expansion into Middle East, Southeast Asia and South America markets.

For Suppliers

• Closely monitor nickel, chromium and other raw material price movements.
• Optimize inventory and quotation strategies.
• Strengthen supply capability for high-grade stainless steel, nickel alloys and specialty metals.
• Improve understanding of regional certification requirements and trade policies.

For Buyers

• Arrange procurement plans according to project schedules during periods of price volatility.
• Consider securing long-term supply channels for large projects.
• Evaluate suppliers based on manufacturing capability, quality management systems, and delivery reliability.

The stainless steel and nickel alloy markets are entering a period of increasing uncertainty, driven by tighter raw material controls, expanding trade protection measures, and changing global supply chains.

For international buyers and suppliers, product upgrading, market diversification, and stronger supply chain cooperation will become key strategies for maintaining competitiveness.