Scope: Nickel alloys, stainless steel and related raw materials
Information sources: Industry associations, market research and publicly available industry data
According to Chinese customs data, China’s stainless steel exports totaled approximately 391,400 tons in July 2026, down 12.3% month-on-month and 6% year-on-year. Net exports were approximately 275,000 tons, representing declines of 15.7% month-on-month and 19.9% year-on-year.
From January to July, cumulative stainless steel exports reached approximately 2.45 million tons, down 16% year-on-year. Net exports declined by 21.8% over the same period.
The July figures indicate continued pressure on China’s stainless steel export market. Overseas summer holidays, changing purchasing patterns and increasing trade measures in several markets are contributing to a more cautious international trading environment.
India has emerged as one of the fastest-growing destinations for Chinese stainless steel exports.
From January to July, Chinese stainless steel exports to India reached approximately 222,500 tons, up 123% year-on-year. The increase has been supported by supply gaps in the Indian domestic market and continued demand for imported stainless steel.
At the same time, market access remains subject to applicable BIS certification and product compliance requirements, making regulatory compliance an important consideration for international suppliers.
The Middle East continues to attract investment across energy, infrastructure and industrial sectors. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates remain important regional markets, supported by ongoing developments in energy, petrochemical, infrastructure and industrial projects.
Stainless steel and nickel-containing materials continue to play an important role in applications exposed to demanding operating environments, including oil and gas, petrochemical processing, LNG, water treatment and industrial equipment.
South Korea continues to strengthen trade-remedy measures affecting stainless steel products from China and other regional suppliers.
A 21.62% anti-dumping duty has been recommended for certain Chinese stainless steel thick plates, while an anti-dumping investigation concerning stainless steel plates from China remains ongoing.
There is also increasing attention on potential circumvention involving stainless steel cold-rolled products processed in Malaysia, particularly where materials originating from countries or regions subject to trade measures are involved.
The developments highlight the growing importance of origin verification, processing records and supply-chain traceabilityin Asian stainless steel trade.
In the United States, Section 232 tariffs on metal products remain an important factor affecting international steel trade. Further changes to the scope of covered steel, aluminum and derivative products will continue to require monitoring.
In Japan, provisional anti-dumping duties have been imposed on certain cold-rolled stainless steel sheets and coils originating from mainland China and Taiwan. For mainland China, the applicable rates range from 27.7% to 42.1%, with the current measures scheduled to remain in effect until November 8, 2026.
Japan has imposed provisional anti-dumping duties on certain cold-rolled stainless steel sheets and coils from mainland China and Taiwan.
The rates for mainland China range from 27.7% to 42.1%, while rates for Taiwan range from 3.6% to 20.1%. The provisional measures are scheduled to remain effective until November 8, 2026.
Market implication: The additional duties increase the importance of landed-cost calculations and may affect purchasing decisions, pricing and competitiveness in the Japanese market.
South Korea’s trade-remedy framework continues to evolve, with both anti-dumping and anti-circumvention measures becoming increasingly relevant.
Current developments include:
Market implication: The Korean market is placing greater emphasis on product origin and processing history, increasing the importance of transparent supply-chain documentation.
The European Union is introducing additional traceability requirements for certain steel imports.
From October 1, 2026, relevant steel imports will be required to provide information concerning the country of first melting and pouring and the applicable furnace number, together with supporting documentation that can be verified.
A transitional period will run from October 1, 2026 to September 30, 2027. During this period, a mill test certificate will not yet be mandatory for this specific requirement, and other documents may be used to demonstrate the relevant information.
Market implication: The new requirements place greater emphasis on upstream production traceability and documentation. Accurate records covering melting, pouring and furnace information are becoming increasingly important for steel supply chains serving the EU market.
The European Commission is consulting on whether additional steel products should be included within the scope of EU safeguard measures.
Products under consideration include cast iron pipes and hollow sections, non-alloy and other alloy wire rod, stainless steel wire rod and forged bars, among others.
A final decision is expected by December 31, 2026.
Market implication: Any expansion of the product scope could affect trade flows and market access for the products concerned. Further developments will be important to monitor through the end of the year.
Indonesia has indicated that it will not impose export taxes or windfall taxes on nickel and coal during 2026. Details regarding potential measures for 2027 have not yet been finalized.
Market implication: The decision removes an immediate source of uncertainty for the nickel export market and reduces the near-term risk of additional export-related costs.
Indicative market prices in late August 2026 were as follows:
| Product / Market | Indicative Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 304 cold-rolled stainless steel, 2.0 mm, Foshan FOB | Approx. US$2,170/ton | Broadly stable |
| Indonesia Tsingshan 304 black coil export | Approx. US$2,290/ton | Up US$30/tonin August |
Asian stainless steel supply showed signs of tightening during August.
Indonesian stainless steel producer Tsingshan reduced production during maintenance and raised its 304 black coil export price amid raw-material cost pressures and weaker production economics. Taiwanese mills also increased 304 and 316L prices for a second consecutive month.
Market view: Supply-side adjustments and higher mill prices are providing some support to stainless steel prices. A seasonal recovery in demand during September could provide additional support into the fourth quarter.
Market reference data as of August 26, 2026:
| Indicator | Reference Level |
|---|---|
| LME Nickel | US$17,050/ton |
| SHFE Nickel | RMB 129,640/ton |
| 300 Series Stainless Steel Inventory | Approx. 586,000 tons |
Nickel prices remained relatively range-bound in late August.
Meanwhile, 300 series stainless steel inventories increased approximately 1.56% week-on-week, indicating that inventory pressure remains a factor limiting the upside potential of stainless steel prices.
Nickel ore supply from the Philippines is expected to improve following the end of the rainy season. However, Indonesian production levels and policy developments remain important variables for the regional nickel market.
Market view: Nickel prices are likely to remain volatile in the near term. Inventory pressure may limit significant upside, while tighter stainless steel supply and raw-material costs could provide some downside support.
Nickel alloy demand remains closely linked to high-value industrial sectors where resistance to heat, corrosion and aggressive operating environments is required.
In the aerospace sector, aircraft engine production continues to support demand for high-performance nickel-based materials. Demand for alloys such as Inconel 718 and Inconel 625 remains closely connected to OEM production rates, engine manufacturing and related component requirements.
In the petrochemical, energy and industrial sectors, materials such as Alloy 800H, Alloy 825 and Alloy C-276 remain relevant to equipment exposed to high temperatures, corrosive media and demanding process conditions.
The continued development of energy infrastructure, advanced industrial equipment and high-performance manufacturing is expected to provide a relatively stable foundation for specialized nickel alloy demand over the medium term.
Production adjustments in parts of Asia and higher mill pricing are strengthening the cost-based support for stainless steel prices.
If seasonal demand improves in September, the combination of tighter supply and stronger downstream activity could provide additional support to the market during the fourth quarter.
The global stainless steel market is showing increasingly different conditions across regions.
India continues to experience strong import demand, while developed markets such as the EU, Japan and Korea are placing greater emphasis on trade compliance, origin verification and supply-chain transparency.
This divergence is likely to remain an important feature of international stainless steel trade.
Recent developments in the EU and Korea indicate that market access is increasingly influenced not only by product quality and price, but also by origin documentation, production traceability and regulatory compliance.
The implementation of new EU traceability requirements in October will further increase the importance of accurate upstream production information within international steel supply chains.
Over the next one to three months, the stainless steel and nickel markets are likely to be influenced by three major factors: seasonal demand, supply-side adjustments and changing trade policies.
September may bring a gradual recovery in international purchasing activity as the summer holiday period ends and seasonal demand improves. From October onward, regulatory developments—particularly in the EU and Korea—are expected to have a greater influence on market access and sourcing decisions.
Overall, the market outlook remains selective rather than broadly bullish, with raw-material costs, regional supply conditions, downstream demand and trade measures continuing to shape price and trade flows.
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