Coverage: Stainless Steel, Nickel Alloys and Related Raw Materials
Key Sources: LME, SHFE, Mysteel, SMM, the Eurasian Economic Commission (EEC), Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM), China Customs and other publicly available industry sources.
China's stainless steel production remained relatively high in August. According to Mysteel, crude stainless steel output from 43 major Chinese mills reached 3.7413 million tonnes in August 2026, up 4.58% month on month and 12.84% year on year.
For September, planned crude stainless steel production is 3.6173 million tonnes, down 3.31% month on month but still 5.56% higher year on year. The reduction in planned output indicates some supply adjustment, but overall availability remains relatively high.
For exporters, overseas demand remains relatively selective, while trade barriers and import compliance requirements continue to influence purchasing decisions. Near-term export orders are therefore likely to focus more on specific specifications, project requirements and replacement or replenishment demand, rather than broad-based inventory building.
Product compliance, certifications, traceability and destination-market requirements are becoming increasingly important alongside price and delivery time.
India remains a market worth monitoring in the near term. India's Ministry of Steel has published a QCO compliance exemption specifically covering certain stainless steel flat products, although the applicability depends on the relevant product and HS code. Exporters should therefore verify the exact scope of the exemption before quoting or shipping.
Meanwhile, India's domestic stainless steel industry continues to strengthen its manufacturing capabilities. On August 31, 2026, Jindal Stainless announced a technical assistance agreement with Japan's JFE Steel covering selected ferritic stainless steel grades, with a focus on product quality, manufacturing practices and process efficiency.
Market implication:
India may continue to present opportunities for specific stainless steel products, particularly where importers have clear specifications or project-based requirements. Exporters should focus on verifying product eligibility, applicable QCO requirements and the customer's actual purchasing schedule.
Geopolitical developments in the Middle East continue to create uncertainty for transportation, logistics costs and delivery schedules.
At the same time, energy, petrochemical, desalination and infrastructure projects continue to generate demand for materials with high corrosion resistance and elevated-temperature performance.
For stainless steel and nickel alloy exporters, project-based demand and materials designed for demanding operating environmentsremain areas worth monitoring.
When quoting for the region, exporters should take into account potential changes in freight, insurance and delivery lead times.
On August 31, 2026, the European Commission adopted an implementing act specifying the evidence importers must provide to establish the country of "melt and pour" for steel products covered by the EU Steel Regulation. The measure is intended to strengthen transparency and traceability and will begin applying from October 1, 2026.
During the transition period from October 1, 2026 to September 30, 2027, importers will generally need documentation showing the country where the steel was melted and poured. Mill Test Certificates (MTCs) and related production records will therefore become increasingly important.
Impact on exporters:
Before shipping steel products to the EU, suppliers should confirm whether they can provide complete information covering:
Incomplete documentation may create additional compliance and communication requirements during customs clearance.
The Eurasian Economic Commission has extended anti-dumping duties on certain stainless steel welded pipes and hollow profiles originating from China through September 7, 2031.
The current duty rates are 14.62% for Foshan Vinmay Stainless Steel Co., Ltd. and 17.28% for Guangdong Sumwin New Material Group Co., Ltd. and other Chinese producers, subject to the specific product scope and applicable tariff codes. The measures cover certain corrosion-resistant stainless steel welded pipes and hollow profiles with circular, square or rectangular cross-sections.
Impact on exporters:
Companies supplying stainless steel welded pipes to the EAEU should confirm:
Export quotations should take the applicable trade-remedy costs into account rather than being based solely on the domestic product price.
PT Weda Bay Nickel (PT WBN) has been authorized to restart mining operations after approximately four months of care and maintenance.
The restart is being carried out progressively. Eramet, a shareholder in WBN, stated that the ramp-up schedule will depend on the remobilization of contractors and equipment, revision of the annual mining plan and completion of administrative procedures. The company has not yet provided a reliable estimate of nickel ore production and sales volumes for the remainder of 2026.
The development is relevant to the broader nickel supply chain because Indonesian nickel ore availability remains an important factor for stainless steel and nickel-related raw material costs.
Market implication:
WBN's restart could gradually increase nickel ore availability, but the actual impact on supply and nickel prices will depend on the pace of the production ramp-up and subsequent production volumes.
The domestic stainless steel market remained relatively weak in early September. Inventory pressure and subdued downstream demand continued to limit price momentum, while raw material costs provided some degree of support.
| Product | Recent Market Trend | Export Implication |
|---|---|---|
| 304 Stainless Steel | Raw material costs remain supportive, while downstream demand is relatively weak | Limited room for aggressive price increases; orders remain mainly requirement-driven |
| 316L Stainless Steel | Nickel and molybdenum costs provide stronger cost support | Cost pressure remains relatively high; price reductions may be limited |
| Duplex Stainless Steel | General demand remains selective, while project-based demand is relatively more stable | Better suited to project-specific quotations and technical sales |
Overall, stainless steel prices are currently influenced by two opposing factors: weak downstream demand and relatively firm raw material costs. This may keep prices in a relatively narrow range in the near term.
Nickel prices remained at relatively elevated levels in early September, with inventory levels limiting upside momentum while raw material costs provided downside support.
Indonesia's nickel mining policies, production quotas and the restart of Weda Bay Nickel remain important variables for the nickel market.
For stainless steel producers, the absence of a sharp decline in nickel prices continues to provide cost support for nickel-bearing grades such as 304 and 316L, although weak end-user demand remains a constraint on further price increases.
Compared with conventional stainless steel, nickel alloy prices are influenced not only by nickel prices but also by alloying elements, manufacturing complexity and demand from specialized industries.
Materials such as Inconel 625, Inconel 718 and Hastelloy C-276 continue to serve applications involving demanding temperature, corrosion and mechanical requirements, particularly in energy, aerospace, chemical processing and other specialized industrial sectors.
The nickel alloy market is therefore more closely linked to specific projects, technical requirements and high-performance applications than to general commodity demand.
For exporters, a specification-driven approach—covering grade, size, standard, certification and end-use application—is generally more relevant than competing solely on price.
Certain markets may continue to generate short-term purchasing opportunities as buyers replenish inventories or fulfill project requirements.
However, the overall international market remains selective. Orders are more likely to focus on products with clear specifications, defined applications and confirmed purchasing schedules.
The EU's new melt-and-pour traceability requirements highlight a broader trend toward stronger supply-chain transparency.
For steel exporters, future competition will increasingly involve not only:
but also:
Indonesia continues to play a major role in global nickel supply. Changes in mining quotas, production approvals and downstream processing policies may continue to influence nickel raw material costs and, consequently, stainless steel and nickel alloy pricing.
Selected markets may continue to present short-term procurement opportunities, while China's stainless steel supply remains relatively high. Stainless steel prices are likely to remain sensitive to the balance between raw material costs and downstream demand.
The EU's new melt-and-pour traceability requirements will begin to apply. Exporters supplying European customers should be prepared for greater documentation and traceability requirements.
If overseas end-user demand does not improve significantly, stainless steel exports may continue to be dominated by requirement-driven orders. Nickel alloy demand is expected to remain closely connected to energy, high-temperature, corrosion-resistant and other specialized industrial applications.
| Market / Area | Recommended Focus |
|---|---|
| India | Monitor QCO requirements and verify whether specific products qualify for applicable exemptions |
| European Union | Confirm MTC, Heat No., Melt & Pour and other traceability information before shipment |
| EAEU | Check HS codes and applicable anti-dumping duties before quoting stainless steel welded pipes |
| Middle East | Prioritize project-based customers and factor freight, insurance and delivery risks into quotations |
| Nickel Alloys | Focus on specific grades, dimensions, standards and end-use applications |
| Indonesia / Nickel Raw Materials | Continue monitoring Weda Bay Nickel's production ramp-up and changes in Indonesian nickel policies |
The stainless steel and nickel alloy export market is entering a period in which supply conditions, raw material costs, trade policies and product compliance are becoming increasingly interconnected.
For stainless steel exporters, high domestic supply and selective overseas demand may keep price competition intense, while regulatory requirements in markets such as the EU and EAEU require greater attention to documentation and trade measures.
For nickel alloy suppliers, demand remains more closely tied to specialized industrial applications and project requirements. Clear technical specifications, reliable documentation and application-focused communication will remain important factors in developing international business.
Disclaimer: This market update is compiled from publicly available industry information and is intended for general market reference only. Market conditions, trade policies, prices and regulatory requirements may change. Specific import requirements, tariff rates and product eligibility should be confirmed with the relevant authorities, customs brokers or importers before commercial transactions.
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