Period: Late July 2026
Industries: Nickel Alloy / Stainless Steel / Related Raw Materials
Information Sources: Public industry data and market information compiled from ESDM, LME, SMM, Mysteel, and other market sources
In July 2026, the nickel market experienced a moderate recovery, with LME nickel prices rebounding from USD 16,175/ton to USD 17,205/ton, supported by Indonesia’s tighter nickel ore supply policy and improved market sentiment.
Meanwhile, the stainless steel market remained under pressure from seasonal demand weakness. Although domestic mills actively controlled production, inventory reduction slowed, limiting further price increases.
In the nickel alloy sector, high-end export opportunities continued to expand. TISCO’s N08825 nickel alloy plates successfully entered the Middle East energy supply chain after passing TÜV Rheinland 3.2 certification, while Jinchuan’s nickel-based welding materials achieved preliminary export cooperation intentions with customers in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Europe.
The market is increasingly shifting from price-driven competition toward certification, quality, and technical capability-based competition, creating new opportunities for high-performance nickel alloy suppliers.
China’s stainless steel production remained relatively stable in July 2026. Output from 43 major stainless steel mills was estimated at approximately 3.6 million tons, representing a 2.4% month-on-month increase.
Among them, 300 series stainless steel production reached approximately 1.86 million tons, down 5.79% month on month, as producers actively reduced output to ease supply pressure.
In terms of inventory, total stainless steel stocks in the two major markets of Wuxi and Foshan reached approximately 929,900 tons in late July, slightly higher than early July levels. Inventory reduction slowed as downstream demand remained weak during the traditional consumption off-season.
Indonesia’s 2026 national nickel ore mining quota has been finalized at approximately 250–260 million tons, representing a reduction of around 30% compared with 2025’s 379 million tons.
The RKAB quota revision application window officially closed on July 31, 2026, and submitted adjustment applications remain subject to strict government approval rather than automatic acceptance.
The tightening of Indonesia’s nickel ore supply is expected to influence the global nickel raw material supply structure and provide short-term support for nickel prices.
However, medium-term market conditions still require attention, as global refined nickel supply remains under pressure from previous expansion.
TISCO successfully delivered N08825 nickel alloy plates to overseas customers. The products passed TÜV Rheinland 3.2 certification in one inspection and the company obtained qualified supplier status from a major international energy company in the Middle East.
This reflects the increasing competitiveness of Chinese high-end nickel alloy products in international energy applications.
Jinchuan Nickel Alloy Company participated in the Beijing Essen Welding & Cutting Fair, showcasing nickel-based solid welding wires, hardfacing welding strips, and related products.
The company reached preliminary export cooperation intentions with buyers from Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Europe, indicating growing demand for high-performance welding materials in international markets.
Tsingshan maintained its price-support strategy in July, with the guidance price for 304 hot-rolled narrow strip remaining at RMB 13,800/ton.
July remained a traditional off-season for stainless steel consumption. Downstream procurement was mainly driven by essential demand, and spot market activity remained relatively quiet.
However, demand for high-temperature alloys in sectors such as aerospace and gas turbines continued to grow. During the month, China’s Nimonic 263 nickel-based high-temperature alloy wire was successfully exported to Russia according to the AMS 5886D standard.
Issuing Authority: Indonesia Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM)
Key Developments:
Industry Impact:
The reduction in Indonesia’s nickel ore quota may tighten upstream supply and provide support for nickel prices in the short term. However, the actual market impact will depend on the implementation progress and supply response from mining companies.
Issuing Authority: Japan Ministry of Finance
Key Developments:
Industry Impact:
The measure increases export costs for Chinese stainless steel suppliers to Japan and adds further pressure to regional stainless steel trade flows.
Issuing Authority: European Commission
Key Developments:
Industry Impact:
The new regulations significantly reduce export flexibility to the European market and increase compliance requirements for overseas steel suppliers.
| Policy | Impact on Cost | Impact on Supply | Industry Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Indonesia RKAB nickel ore quota tightening | Negative (higher costs) | Supply tightening | Reduced nickel ore supply may support nickel prices and increase upstream cost pressure. |
| Japan temporary anti-dumping duties | Negative | Supply tightening | Stainless steel export costs to Japan increase by 27.7%–42.1% during the four-month implementation period. |
| EU steel import regulations | Negative | Supply tightening | Lower quotas and higher tariffs further restrict steel export channels to Europe. |
Note: Policy developments in late July were mainly a continuation of earlier July measures. No additional policy changes directly affecting nickel alloy or stainless steel exports were introduced during this period.
LME nickel closed at USD 17,315/ton on July 30, 2026.
During July, nickel prices recovered from a low of USD 16,175/ton, representing an increase of approximately 7%.
LME nickel inventories declined from 274,230 tons at the beginning of July to 267,522 tons, a reduction of 6,708 tons.
In late July, SHFE nickel prices fluctuated between RMB 128,850–134,350/ton, closing at RMB 132,260/ton on July 30.
In the Wuxi market, mainstream quotations for privately produced 304 cold-rolled stainless steel (4-foot width, gross base price) remained at approximately RMB 14,500–14,550/ton, with limited price movement during the month.
In the short term, SHFE nickel is expected to fluctuate within the range of RMB 129,000–136,000/ton, with RMB 130,000/ton currently acting as a relatively stable support level.
Nickel remains the core cost component of nickel-based alloys. It accounts for approximately 55%–72% of the alloy composition by weight and represents around 45%–56% of total raw material procurement costs.
For mainstream nickel alloy products, a fluctuation of USD 5,000/ton in LME nickel prices typically results in a corresponding movement of approximately USD 3,000–3,600/ton in nickel alloy spot prices.
Nickel prices rebounded in July, supported by Indonesia’s nickel ore supply policy adjustments and improved market sentiment.
However, the stainless steel market remained affected by weak seasonal demand, limiting further price increases.
For nickel-based alloys, price changes in key alloying elements such as nickel and molybdenum continue to influence overall material costs. The pricing of highly alloyed materials should be evaluated based on the specific grade, alloy composition, and project requirements.
Following the implementation of the new steel import regulations, the remaining shared duty-free quota for 1A hot-rolled steel products from non-FTA countries has decreased to approximately 22,000 tons, indicating that the duty-free channel is effectively limited.
The temporary anti-dumping duties on cold-rolled stainless steel products have been in effect for three weeks, increasing export costs to Japan by 27.7%–42.1%.
TISCO’s successful delivery of N08825 nickel alloy plates and qualification as a supplier for a major Middle East energy company demonstrate the continued demand for high-performance materials in the region.
The Middle East’s oil & gas and seawater desalination industries maintain strong demand for nickel alloys, making the region one of the key growth markets for Chinese nickel alloy exports.
China’s Nimonic 263 nickel-based high-temperature alloy wire was successfully exported to Russia under the AMS 5886D standard, showing that export channels for high-temperature alloys remain active.
At the Beijing Essen Welding & Cutting Fair, Jinchuan’s nickel-based welding materials attracted attention from regional buyers, with preliminary cooperation intentions reached with customers in Southeast Asia.
Demand for high-corrosion-resistant welding wires and hardfacing welding strips remains promising in the region.
TISCO’s N08825 nickel alloy products successfully passed TÜV Rheinland 3.2 certification and entered the supply chain of a major Middle East energy company. Meanwhile, Jinchuan’s nickel-based welding materials achieved preliminary export cooperation intentions with buyers from Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Europe.
These developments demonstrate that Chinese nickel alloy products are gaining stronger competitiveness in international high-end markets, with certification barriers gradually being overcome.
Nickel alloy exports are moving from traditional price-based competition toward a new stage of “certification + quality” competition.
For industries including oil & gas, chemical processing, marine engineering, and energy equipment, supplier qualification, material certification, stable supply capability, and technical support are becoming increasingly important factors in procurement decisions.
Indonesia’s nickel ore quota reduction of approximately 30% may correspond to a potential reduction of 200,000–400,000 tons in global primary nickel supply, providing short-term support for nickel prices.
However, from a medium-term perspective, global refined nickel supply remains under pressure from oversupply, limiting the potential for sustained price increases.
With Japan’s anti-dumping measures taking effect and the EU’s new steel import regulations being implemented, trade barriers affecting stainless steel exports continue to increase.
However, nickel alloys—especially high-temperature alloys and corrosion-resistant alloys—are less vulnerable to trade restrictions due to their higher technical requirements, longer qualification cycles, and strong application specialization.
Based on current market conditions, the nickel alloy and stainless steel markets are expected to experience:
Chinese nickel alloy suppliers should continue developing high-value markets where certification and technical capability are critical, including:
Although nickel prices have recovered in the short term, medium-term volatility risks remain.
For molybdenum-containing nickel alloys, high molybdenum prices continue to create cost pressure. Export quotations and purchasing strategies should therefore be adjusted according to raw material market trends.
As trade barriers increase, competition in conventional stainless steel exports is becoming more intense.
In comparison, nickel-based corrosion-resistant alloys, high-temperature alloys, and related welding materials continue to demonstrate strong export potential due to their:
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