Nickel Price Trends & Stainless Steel 304 Market Analysis (March 2026)

Time: Late March 2026
Scope: Nickel Alloys / Stainless Steel / Related Raw Materials
Sources: Industry associations, authoritative institutions, overseas media, and compiled market research

1. Supply and Production Changes

Domestic stainless steel crude steel output:▲ (operating at a high level, but cost pressure is intensifying)

Reason:

In March, domestic stainless steel crude steel production schedules remained at a high level. However, due to the tightening of Indonesia’s nickel ore policies and rising raw material costs, the profit margin of short-process 304 cold rolling has dropped to 7.5%, and the process using externally purchased high-grade ferronickel has entered slight losses. Steel mills are in an awkward situation of “high output, low profit.”

Nickel raw material supply:
Global nickel ore supply has entered a phase of substantial tightening. Indonesia’s mining quotas for 2026 have decreased year-on-year, and the approval process is slow. Nickel Industries’ Hengjaya nickel mine suspended operations completely due to a safety accident on March 25, pending investigation by Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources. Freight rates from the Philippines remain high due to the situation in the Middle East. The raw material side has formed a pattern of “easy to rise, difficult to fall.”

2. Key Enterprises and Market Activities

Leading steel mills / alloy enterprises:

• Tsingshan-related Indonesian steel mills have taken the opportunity to support prices. The base price of private 304 cold rolling in Wuxi has been quoted at RMB 14,050/ton, up RMB 150 week-on-week.
• Taiwan’s Yieh United Steel and Tang Eng announced in early March a price increase of TWD 2,000/ton (about USD 63/ton) for 304 series products, marking the fourth consecutive monthly increase.
• Shengdexintai plans to issue convertible bonds to raise about RMB 400 million, aiming to add 5,000 tons of advanced high-nickel seamless pipe capacity for industrial use.
• CNGR Advanced Material provided a USD 18 million loan to Indonesia Hengsheng New Energy for nickel matte project construction.
• Nickel Industries’ Indonesian mine has fully suspended production due to a safety accident, affecting short-term nickel ore supply.
• LS Superalloy: The construction progress of the 18MN radial forging intelligent production line has reached 60%, and core equipment installation is basically completed. Overall installation and commissioning are expected by the end of April. This project is the first domestically produced equipment of its kind in China, aiming to build a demonstration project for intelligent manufacturing in the forging industry and support the independent controllability of the high-end equipment industry chain.

Changes in downstream demand:

• New energy / chemical industry:

Although ternary precursor production has declined seasonally, the absolute output remains at a historical high level, forming rigid support for nickel intermediates. GEM’s smelter suspended production for maintenance during Ramadan, further tightening MHP supply.

• Equipment manufacturing:

Demand in thermal power and boiler sectors remains stable, but downstream procurement is mainly for rigid restocking, and transaction volumes have not significantly increased.

• Automotive supply chain:

The European auto parts industry is under pressure from Chinese competition, increased imports, and geopolitical factors. Global automobile production growth is limited, and the European market shows stagnation.

Summary

The tightening of Indonesia’s nickel ore policies and the collective price support from Asian steel mills have formed a cost-driven price increase. Stainless steel futures once exceeded RMB 14,600/ton, and spot prices rose by RMB 150/ton during the week. Downstream demand has been released moderately, but high raw material prices have locked the downside space. The market has entered a stalemate stage of “difficult to fall, upward movement depends on demand.”

1. Newly Introduced / Proposed Policies

• Policy 1: Indonesia’s windfall tax on nickel and coal to be implemented on April 1

Issuing authority: Indonesian Presidential Office / Ministry of Finance
Latest update: President Prabowo approved the tax on March 25, and the Minister of Finance stated it could be implemented as early as April 1. This is a key measure introduced by Indonesia to address its fiscal deficit.
Impact interpretation:
Indonesia has a wide variety of nickel products. Among them, wet-process nickel intermediates have the highest profits. It is expected that the windfall tax will not be applied uniformly, but different tax rates will be set based on product profitability. This will directly increase costs and further strengthen price support on the raw material side.

• Policy 2: EU steel safeguard measures tightened urgently (effective April 1)

Issuing authority: European Commission

Latest update: On March 19, Executive Vice President Séjourné announced that steel import quotas would be reduced by nearly 15% starting April 1, in response to US steel and aluminum tariffs and to prevent steel diversion into the EU.

Impact interpretation:
This will form short-term suppression on the supply side. The reduction in quotas will directly limit export volumes to the EU. In addition, the EU is preparing a new mechanism for July, including halving quotas to 18.3 million tons, doubling out-of-quota tariffs to 50%, and introducing “melted and poured” rules. Market access barriers in Europe are rising rapidly.

• Policy 3: EU CBAM (Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism) enters full charging phase

Issuing authority: European Commission

Latest update: It officially entered the paid phase on January 1, 2026. The first CBAM certificate settlement deadline is September 30, 2027. On March 24, China’s Ministry of Commerce publicly criticized the EU’s high default emission values for Chinese products, stating that they violate WTO principles.

Impact interpretation:
This creates long-term cost pressure. Companies using default emission values will face significantly higher CBAM costs. For example, for 50,000 tons of plate, the cost under default values is about €5.8 million, while under verified emissions it is only about €1.4 million. Companies without MRV carbon data systems will be at a competitive disadvantage.

2. Impact Assessment on the Industry

Cost side:Negative

Indonesia’s windfall tax increases cost burdens; EU CBAM directly increases compliance costs for exports.

Supply side:Global tightening

Indonesia’s slow mining approvals and tax expectations restrict nickel ore outflow; EU quota cuts reduce export channels.

Export side: EU market access barriers are rising sharply

1. Nickel Prices

Nickel price trend:

LME nickel fluctuated in the range of USD 17,000–17,500/ton, closing at USD 17,186/ton on March 27. SHFE nickel main contract closed at RMB 137,100/ton, up about 3.0% week-on-week.

Reasons for fluctuation:

Tight approval of Indonesia’s nickel ore quotas combined with the Philippine rainy season has kept ore supply tight. The price of 1.6% grade nickel ore increased by USD 29 year-on-year to USD 75/ton, pushing up pyrometallurgical costs. Expectations of increased high-grade nickel matte and hydrometallurgical capacity limit upward price space, forming a pattern of “cost support below and supply ceiling above.”

In addition, sulfur, as a key auxiliary material for hydrometallurgy, saw CIF Indonesia prices rise by 25% week-on-week to USD 725/ton, further increasing MHP production costs.

2. Stainless Steel

304 cold-rolled stainless steel trend:
Fluctuating upward with a rising bottom. The main futures contract once exceeded RMB 14,600/ton and closed at RMB 14,390/ton, up 2.31% weekly.

Domestic spot prices:
As of March 28, the mainstream base price of 304 private cold-rolled (4ft) in Wuxi reached RMB 14,050/ton, up RMB 150 from last Friday; private hot-rolled prices reached RMB 13,850/ton, also up RMB 150. On March 30, spot prices stabilized around RMB 14,400/ton.

International reference prices:
A leading Indonesian steel mill raised 304 prices; Taiwan’s 304 hot-rolled and cold-rolled products increased by about USD 63/ton cumulatively, marking four consecutive monthly increases.

Factor Analysis

• Raw materials: Strong support
• Inventory: Social inventory has declined for three consecutive weeks
• Sentiment:
  • Macro: relatively bearish
  • Industry: cautiously optimistic
• Policy:Indonesia tax + EU trade barriers strengthen cost expectations

• Trend 1: Global Nickel Resource Competition Shifts from "Quantity" to "Cost and Integration"

Companies are accelerating the layout of Indonesian nickel matte/HPAL projects. HPAL capacity is expected to surge in 2026, but sulfur supply is becoming a new bottleneck. Approximately 70%-75% is imported from the Middle East. Due to recent tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, sulfur spot prices have risen sharply, pushing some MHP production lines near breakeven. Smelters have only 1-2 months of sulfur inventory. Haitong International expects the global nickel supply-demand balance to be roughly balanced or have a small surplus in 2026, with Indonesia accounting for 65% of production.

• Trend 2: Material Upgrade Direction

High-Performance Nickel Alloys: 

Upgrading from traditional stainless steel to nickel-based alloys and superalloys. Shengde Xintai is shifting from the "hot piercing" process to the "hot extrusion" process, breaking the mass production bottleneck for nickel-based alloy seamless pipes to meet the needs of the nuclear industry, aerospace, and high-end chemicals.

Low-Carbon Steel as EU Market Access Threshold:

BAM has entered its paid period. By 2028, it is expected to expand to white goods, automobiles, metal products, and machinery. Companies lacking an MRV carbon data system will face the "default value penalty" – even if actual carbon emissions are low, they may be forced to use high emission assessments due to inability to provide proof.

• Trend 3: EU Automotive Supply Chain Restructuring

The European automotive parts industry is facing pressure from intensified Chinese competition, increased imports, and geopolitical uncertainty. The scale of Chinese-made parts entering Europe has reached 8 billion USD, nearly doubling from three years ago. Although Chinese automakers' greenfield investments in Europe (Italy, Poland, Hungary, Spain, Turkey) are advancing, initial scales are small (starting at 50,000-100,000 units) and will not generate significant steel demand in the short term.

Medium-term Judgment (1-3 months)

Cost Side: The Indonesian windfall tax is highly likely to be implemented in April. Slow RKAB quota approvals, ongoing sulfur supply risks, and the impact of the mine safety accident will continue to provide cost support.

Price Outlook: Expected trading range for SHFE nickel is 135,000 - 145,000 RMB/ton, and for main stainless steel contract is 13,500 - 14,500 RMB/ton. Short-term fluctuations with an upward bias, but upside potential is limited by moderate demand release.

Regional Divergence: The EU market's barriers to steel imports are significantly increasing due to April quota cuts, the July new mechanism, and full CBAM implementation. The Asian market is expected to see strong fluctuations with an upward bias, driven by cost support and regional demand.

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