The stainless steel and nickel alloy market entered a more cautious phase in late June 2026. While several major Chinese stainless steel mills reduced production through scheduled maintenance, overseas demand continued to weaken due to seasonal slowdowns and increasingly restrictive trade policies.
At the same time, Indonesia's nickel mining policy remained the largest source of uncertainty for the global nickel market. Exporters are also facing higher compliance costs as Europe, the UK, Japan, and other regions tighten trade protection measures.
Overall, the market is expected to remain range-bound in the short term, with supply-side support offset by weaker export demand.
According to Mysteel, China's 43 major stainless steel producers generated 3.816 million tons of crude stainless steel in May 2026, representing:
Production for June is estimated at 3.604 million tons, down:
Major producers including Baosteel Desheng, TISCO Stainless, and Huale Alloy implemented scheduled maintenance during June, reducing total output by more than 160,000 tons.
Production reductions by series include:
Although supply is tightening marginally due to maintenance, overall production remains relatively high compared with last year.
Indonesia's nickel mining quota (RKAB) continues to influence global nickel prices.
Current approved production quotas remain around 260–270 million tonnes for 2026. Market rumors in mid-June suggested quotas could increase to 360 million tonnes, causing nickel prices to fall sharply before Indonesian authorities denied the reports.
Meanwhile, the Philippines has entered its dry season, leading to stronger nickel ore shipments and improving raw material availability.
Overall, nickel ore supply remains relatively comfortable despite ongoing policy uncertainty.
Chinese stainless steel producers continued maintenance programs throughout June, with several mills expected to extend production cuts into July.
Meanwhile:
June marked the traditional off-season for stainless steel consumption. Most downstream manufacturers purchased only to meet immediate production needs, while large-scale inventory replenishment remained limited. As a result, both domestic and export demand stayed relatively soft.
Global trade protection continued to intensify during June.
Japan issued a preliminary anti-dumping ruling on cold-rolled stainless steel coils imported from mainland China and Taiwan.
Proposed duties range from 33.29% to 45.32%, significantly increasing export costs for affected suppliers.
New EU steel safeguard measures will take effect on 1 July 2026, including:
These measures substantially raise compliance requirements for exporters entering the European market.
The UK will also introduce replacement safeguard measures effective 1 July 2026, featuring:
Indonesia has launched a transition period for its unified ferro alloy export policy.
Beginning in 2027, exports of ferro alloys—including ferro nickel and ferro chrome—must be processed through the state-controlled DSI platform.
The policy is expected to increase nickel iron procurement costs for stainless steel producers.
The Eurasian Economic Commission has proposed extending anti-dumping duties on Chinese stainless steel welded pipes for another five years.
The measure would continue to limit exports to Russia and other EAEU member countries.
Nickel prices remained highly volatile throughout June.
Price movements were driven mainly by changing expectations regarding Indonesia's RKAB mining quotas.
As of 29 June 2026:
Market sentiment remains cautious while participants await further clarification from the Indonesian government.
Mainstream quotations for Chinese private-sector 304 cold-rolled stainless steel in Wuxi remained around:
Stainless steel futures also continued to trade within a relatively narrow range, indicating a balanced market despite weaker seasonal demand.
| Factor | Market Impact |
|---|---|
| EU & UK safeguard measures | Negative for exports |
| Japan anti-dumping ruling | Negative for exports |
| European summer holiday season | Weaker overseas purchasing activity |
| Indonesia RKAB policy | Creates uncertainty in nickel prices |
| Chinese mill maintenance | Supports stainless steel prices through lower supply |
Trade barriers are shifting from tariff-based protection toward stricter origin verification, carbon footprint requirements, and product traceability.
For exporters, compliance is becoming just as important as pricing.
With Europe becoming increasingly difficult to access, more stainless steel exports are expected to move toward:
These regions continue to benefit from infrastructure investment, energy projects, desalination facilities, and industrial development.
High-performance nickel alloys such as Inconel 625, Inconel 718, and Hastelloy C-276 continue to see growing demand from:
Although short-term stainless steel demand remains soft, the long-term outlook for high-performance nickel alloys remains positive.
Looking ahead, the market is expected to experience stable pricing with softer trading volumes, while compliance costs continue to rise.
Several factors will determine market direction:
For exporters, strengthening supply chain transparency, origin compliance, and certification capabilities will become increasingly important in maintaining competitiveness in international markets.
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